The Yemen Proxy War.

Whilst the conflicts in Syria and Iraq regularly make headline news, the most destructive and bloody conflict in the Middle East is actually in Yemen. The lack of media attention can be put down to the lack of terrorist presence, in comparison with other conflicts in the region, and possibly as some global leaders may be complicit in war crimes. Whilst the conflict, on face value, is between the Houthi rebels of Yemen and Saudi Arabia, in reality, it is a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia which is being played out in one of the poorest countries in the Middle East.

The conflict roots back to a failed political transition which sought to bring stability to Yemen. Following the Arab Spring uprisings of 2011, Ali Abdullah Saleh, president of unified Yemen, was forced to hand over power to his deputy, Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi. The body overseeing this transition, from Saleh to Hadi, was the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), of which Saudi Arabia was the most influential member. Despite this transition, Yemen still suffered from the same issues that it did before such as; terrorist groups, separatist movements, mass unemployment, lack of government accountability, food insecurities and unfair fuel prices. The Houthi’s, a major player in the conflict, also charges Saleh with corruption as to steal the wealth of the Arab world’s poorest country for his personal gain. The Houthis also criticise Saudi Arabia and American for backing Salah, a dictator that has pushed Yemen into poverty.

The Houthi movement was founded in the 1990s by Hussein Badreddin al-Houthi, a member of Yemen’s Zaidi Shia minority which makes up around one-third of Yemen’s population. The Zaidi’s, a once-powerful force in North Yemen, were side-lined during the civil war from 1962 to 1970 and were further alienated in the 1980s as Sunni ideals gained prominence in Saudi Arabia, Sunni and Shia’s being the two denominations in Islam. As Saudi Arabia was influential in the Middle East it led to Sunni ideologies being brought to Yemen. As a result, the North of Yemen, which was majority Shia, was massively undeveloped and had little economic support or protection. In 2014 the Houthis become more vocal about their frustrations and began demonstrations, fuelled at the time by the rise in fuel prices. The Houthis then rebelled against the government that they believe had failed them and in 2014 began to collude with former prime minister Salah, against Hadi, who was once a sworn enemy. The Houthis knew Salah still had people loyal to him in the military which allowed the Houthis to have a military presence which led to the Houthis taking control of Yemen’s capital, Sana’a, on the 21st of September 2014. Hadi fled to Saudi Arabia where he formed a partnership with the Saudi Arabians’ and a coalition of countries which sought to return Hadi to power.

Saudi Arabi had two main reasons to join the conflict. First, it wanted to protect its southern border to reduce the prospect of Yemen’s fragmentation influencing an uprising in Saudi Arabia and secondly, and most importantly, to stop the growing influence of Iran, its rival, in the region.

Since the Obama administration waved crippling economic sanctions on Iran, it has gained significant economic and political influence in the region. Prior to the uprisings of the Arab Spring of 2011, Yemen was under the political influence of Saudi Arabia. However, as Iran became more influential it started to influence the Shia population in Yemen.

Iran and Saudi Arabia’s rivalry is partly a power struggle in the region, which has been going on for over 40 years, and is partly due to Saudi Arabia being the self-proclaimed leader of the Muslim world, as it is home to the two holiest sites in Islam. In 1979 Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini led the Islamic revolution in Iran and Iran thus believed that it should be the leader of the Muslim world, which caused tension between the countries. Saudi Arabia also fears that if Iran was to become even more influential in the region that it would trigger similar revolutions of that from Iran in Saudi Arabia.

Whilst major news outlets say that the tension between the countries is also due to an Islamic schism, between Shia Muslims who make up the majority of Iran and Sunni Muslims which makes up the majority in Saudi Arabia, this is not true. Until recently, Saudi Arabia had a good relationship with the Shah of Iran despite Iran being majority Shia and Saudi Arabia being majority Sunni. This relationship extended to 1999 where Iranian president Mohammed Khatami visited Saudi Arabia to strengthen ties between the two countries. Prince Saud Al Faisal, the Saudi Foreign Minister, stated that “there are no limits to cooperation with Iran” and both countries even signed a security packed in 2001. Even as late as 2007 the Gulf Countries, led by Saudi Arabia, invited President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran to attend their summit where the Iranian President and the then King of Saudi Arabia could be seen holding hands.

This evidence shows that the countries had a very good working relationship less than two decades ago despite the two countries following different Islamic views, which has been present for 1,400 years. Whist the relationship has broken down severely, partly by Saudi Arabia’s beheading of an Iranian cleric, if it was a religious split which caused the tension it would have always existed, not have grown in the last two decades.

Thus, the reality is that the war in Yemen is a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran for influence in the region. A proxy war is where two major powers do not declare war directly but support opposing sides in a conflict in another part of the world. The Houthis are allegedly supported with weapons by Iran, a claim which Iran denies. However, when a Saudi Arabian oil facility was attacked in 2019, whilst the Houthis alone took credit for the attack, Mark Esper, the US Defence Secretary, said that based on investigations conducted by Saudi Arabia and the United States the weapons used in the attack where Iranian-produced. This helps decipher that Iran is supporting the Houthis militarily and is using the conflict in Yemen as a proxy war against Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, has taken a more direct approach and has, since 2015, engaged in mass airstrikes against the Houthi rebels. The United Nations believes that these airstrikes are very likely to constitute war crimes as they have killed a lot of civilians and the bombing locations go against the rules of engagement, yet they go on. These airstrikes have also been supported by the USA, a Saudi Arabian ally since World War 2. The USA also sell arms, provide military support and trains the Saudi military on how to use weapons.

Between October 2010 to October 2014, America and Saudi Arabia reached more than $90 billion in weapon deals, according to the Congressional Research Service. Donald Trump has also pushed through, without congresses approval, arms deal with Saudi Arabia for the value of $8.1 billion. To do this Donald Trump invoked a vague provision in the Arms Export Control Act which allows arms deals to be carried out, without congressional approval, where an emergency threatens the US’s national security interests. Representative Ted Lieu, for the District of California, realised the issue that this deal would bring and started that Yemen “is a horrific humanitarian problem. The Saudi-led coalition has killed countless civilians. It is not an emergency that would justify weapons sales to Saudi Arabia and UAE that bypasses congressional procedure.”

There has been a further deal between Saudi Arabia and the USA which amounted to $110 billion which included the world’s most sophisticated warfare aircraft, precision-guided bombs, advanced F16-fighter jets and laser-guided missiles. These weapons have had direct links to the conflict in Yemen. In 2015, there were deals for battle replacements for Abrahams tanks, the battle in which they were used being Yemen.

Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International also state that Saudi Arabia has used cluster bombs in its strikes against Yemen, which are banned by most of the international community. Whilst neither Saudi Arabia nor American have signed the Convention on Cluster Munitions (CCM), which banned cluster bombs, the sale of these bombs still goes forward despite the known risk of causing mass civilians casualties. These bombs are not only being made available by America but also the UK, which is signed up to the convention, making the UK in breach of its agreement.

However, America is also helping to exacerbate the damage done in Yemen by refuelling Saudi Arabia’s F15 fighter jets mid-air which makes the Saudi Airstrikes more lethal as the air raids can last longer. In the span of a year, the US flew over 1,600 refuelling missions to over 6,300 aircraft which were bombing Yemen. Kamel Jendoubi, the Chair of the Group on UN Experts on Yemen, states that the acts of supplying and assisting Saudi Arabia with arms are also likely to constitute war crimes on part of the USA.

Saudi Arabia has conducted 19,000 air attacks in the last 4 years including the bombing of Marketplaces, Hospitals, Schools and even a funeral in the capital of Sana’a where 140 people were killed. The Seaport’s of Al-Hudaydah were also bombed which were some of the main sources of Yemen’s food and humanitarian aid Shipments. This has prompted investigations, as mentioned, from the UN into Saudi Arabia for war crimes in Yemen.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have attempted to better their public relations by pledging $750 million each in humanitarian aid to Yemen. However, the United Nations aid chief Mark Lowcock has called out Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates for only having paid a “modest proportion” of the hundreds of millions of dollars they pledged. Not only is humanitarian aid not being funded properly it is also being used as a weapon. In 2015 the Saudi led coalition created a land, sea and air barrier around Yemen making it impossible for supplies to get in. This further worsened the lack of food and aid reaching the people of Yemen causing mass starvation and illness to spread rampantly.

In a country of 29 million people, the UN says that 24 million people depend on humanitarian aid and Christopher Boulierac, a UNICEF Spokesman, said that more than 11 million children, which is almost every Yemeni child, rely on this aid for essential food and medication. The UN estimates 15,000 civilians have been killed or injured from the conflict and over 100,000 total deaths since 2015. Around 370,000 children are malnourished, and 10,000 children have died from preventable diseases. 3,000,000 families were displaced between 2015 and 2016 alone. Yemen is also facing the worst cholera epidemic in modern history due to this conflict and the inability to get medication to those who need it most which means that it is likely to get worse. There is also the fear that Covid-19 may lead to more deaths. At the time of writing this the outbreak in Yemen has only started, however, it is rapidly growing over the country and risks killing thousands as the Yemini health system has collapsed.

The Houthis continues to run the capital of Sana’a and Saudi Arabia continues to bomb Yemen. However, with the Houthi still controlling the capital, it is questionable what Saudi Arabia has accomplished from the conflict and whether it could possibly be worth the cost of all the lives and damage it has caused? Surely no amount of regional influence can justify killing tens of thousands of people, some of whom were civilians and children. Yemen is being used as a battleground for Saudi Arabia and Iran. It is not Saudi Arabia, America nor Iran that are suffering the toll of this conflict, it is the people of Yemen that are being pushed to the brink of starvation.